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I'm not suggesting they will ban ALL petrol cars. They are going to ban NEW petrol cars. Then they will offer massive incentives to turn in your petrol car.

As far as the US Dollar being tied to oil, the writing is on the wall, time for that to change or suffer the consequences. The rest of the world does not revolve around the US and the rest of the world is making the change no matter what the US does or thinks. This will be a local problem for the US, by 2040 I expect the world won't be using the US dollar anymore for the standard, it is long overdue to be replaced.

They won't necessarily raise the price of electricity to cover the costs of losing oil money, the fact that electricity consumption will raise 500% will make that happen. Also, just think about the amount of money that will need to be spent updating the ancient electric grids in North America to handle this new demand. There are plenty of ways for the government AND the rich to transition away from oil money.

A lot of speculation, will be very interesting (and somewhat scary) to see how this is all rolled out.
 

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I will agree that the US Dollar being the global standard is under threat, and rightfully so. However, the trick is to find the commodity to based global worth off of. Oil obviously isn't the answer. The situation you will run into is that whatever standard is agreed upon, there will be those who will try to monopolize on that standard so they can set all the rules. Humankind doesn't seem intent on playing fairly. The US will stumble as the support for the Dollar wanes, but the real interesting trial will be seeing how the newly adopted standard will change global power.

So far as electricity is concerned, it may very well become like oil. There is a generation and transmission process for electricity. If a majority of vehicles start relying on electricity to work, that's going to be an increased strain on infrastructure. Transmission lines will need to be either upgraded or added. Substations will need to be beefed up. "Final Mile" power lines will need to be upgraded. Then there's the issue of HOW to recharge all these EVs, which is where the big stumbling block will come in. It can cost several thousand dollars to install a new Stage 2 charging station (one that will recharge an average EV in 3-4hrs). I have sold some of the Stage 2 chargers on occasion, and they can run about $3000 on average. That's just the station itself. Stage 3 (superchargers) right now is prohibitively expensive ($25K+), so I don't see those coming into mainstream use anytime soon. Sure, maybe the single family homeowner can afford to put one in, or perhaps they can even suffice with a Stage 1 charger and wait all night for their batteries to recharge. However, my main concern is with those in multi-family housing (apartments, condos, etc). For sake of argument, let's say it costs $4000 to install a Stage 2 charger at each resident stall (parts and labor, plus pouring a pad to mount the charger). You have 70 stalls, not including guest parking. That's $280,000. Then there's the matter of making sure each stall ties in to the apartment's meter so the tenant gets properly billed. I highly doubt that the property owners will tie the chargers into common power (and if they did, now they need to maintain RFID cards to bill the tenant for power used which gets into utility metering issues). Sometimes, due to security, a tenant's stall might be a couple of hundred feet from their space. So now are you going to tear up asphalt and common areas to lay down a circuit? On top of that, most times the tenant's subpanel is maxed out. So now you could be talking about upgrading the service at the subpanel, installing a new circuit line to the Stage 2 charger and infrastructure charges. Now we're in the tens of thousands. Per tenant. Who's going to pay for all that?

Electrification isn't the answer. Think back 100yrs to when the automobile was just starting to hit its stride and realize we've come a long way in those 100yrs. Hell, go back 20yrs and realize everything we've been able to accomplish with the IC engine (direct injection, perfected cylinder deactivation programming, variable valve timing, etc). I don't think oil is going away anytime soon. Even if it did, do you realize the cost to clean up all that old infrastructure? And who do you think would be on the hook for that cleanup? Hint: Taxpayer. I don't think we can AFFORD to abandon oil. However, I do think that there is plenty of room to moderate our consumption and use it more efficiently.
 

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48-volt mild hybrid systems will become very prevalent in the next decade - Audi already has one, MB's new I6 has minimal belt operated accessories, Volvo is likely to use this as well. This should buy 15-30% FE gains, plus increase power ratings and reduce wire usage (weight and cost). The biggest challenge to IC motors will be meeting ever tougher PM and NOX standards in real world usage, that may be the final nail in the coffin (along with affordable and effective electric vehicle implementations).
 

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It's interesting to see that the European countries that are mandating zero emission will cease to exist before the mandates take place due to immigration policies which in turn will learn to global nuclear war, but hey go for it.
 

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I think it raises another question: How abundant are rare earth metals such as Lithium and Cobalt? Is there enough to supply the"Electrification Revolution"?
 

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Meh.

Look folks, here's reality. It's called physics and nobody can change that with politics, like it or not.

First batteries must carry their reactants. All of them. The Tesla "80kWh" battery has a usable capacity of about 70kWh, more or less. That's approximately two gallons of gasoline, and it weighs 100x as much (1200lbs!) as said gas.

Mass is a huge problem. Accelerating it takes energy. 1200lbs is no small amount. Yes, the driveline masses less on an EV, but the battery makes the entirety weigh more and cost (much) more.

Skyactiv does pretty good. HCCI, Skyactiv-X, is claimed to be 30% or so better. That means 50mpg on the highway at 65mph. That plus "light" hybrid for city braking recovery would put city mileage in the 60-70mpg range; that option would likely be a $3-5k cost increase, however, and frankly, few would find it worth it.

The problem for the EV folks AND the environmentalists is that EVs no longer make sense once you can get to the 50mpg threshold, assuming you can control NOx, and it appears Mazda has that figured out.

This engine, if it actually shows up and hits the market in the $20k base models on up to the low $30s for a "loaded" model, is going to utterly destroy the argument both economically and ecologically for EVs. The TCO will pants the EV folks, never mind that you already have the fueling infrastructure everywhere. EVs won't have charging infrastructure, especially for high-rate chargers, for decades - IF EVER.

Finally, do not be deceived -- you can make gasoline out of any carbon source. It doesn't have to come out of the ground..... that just happens to be the most-economical means to do it right now.

It's amusing that little Mazda appears to have done what GM, Ford, Honda and others could not over the space of 30 years. If they actually deliver this engine in a vehicle I like, I'm buying one.
 

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Meh.

Look folks, here's reality. It's called physics and nobody can change that with politics, like it or not.

First batteries must carry their reactants. All of them. The Tesla "80kWh" battery has a usable capacity of about 70kWh, more or less. That's approximately two gallons of gasoline, and it weighs 100x as much (1200lbs!) as said gas.

Mass is a huge problem. Accelerating it takes energy. 1200lbs is no small amount. Yes, the driveline masses less on an EV, but the battery makes the entirety weigh more and cost (much) more.

Skyactiv does pretty good. HCCI, Skyactiv-X, is claimed to be 30% or so better. That means 50mpg on the highway at 65mph. That plus "light" hybrid for city braking recovery would put city mileage in the 60-70mpg range; that option would likely be a $3-5k cost increase, however, and frankly, few would find it worth it.

The problem for the EV folks AND the environmentalists is that EVs no longer make sense once you can get to the 50mpg threshold, assuming you can control NOx, and it appears Mazda has that figured out.

This engine, if it actually shows up and hits the market in the $20k base models on up to the low $30s for a "loaded" model, is going to utterly destroy the argument both economically and ecologically for EVs. The TCO will pants the EV folks, never mind that you already have the fueling infrastructure everywhere. EVs won't have charging infrastructure, especially for high-rate chargers, for decades - IF EVER.

Finally, do not be deceived -- you can make gasoline out of any carbon source. It doesn't have to come out of the ground..... that just happens to be the most-economical means to do it right now.

It's amusing that little Mazda appears to have done what GM, Ford, Honda and others could not over the space of 30 years. If they actually deliver this engine in a vehicle I like, I'm buying one.
Your argument is far too logic based.

Politics are never logic based, purely money driven. As long as they can wring out the taxes and stay in power it does not matter how logical it is to stick with a proven technology.

Electric cars have been around since the beginning and they did well back in the early 1900's. I would happily buy a $20K CAD electric car even it if had a short 100KM range for around town use (90% of my driving) as long as I could keep my gasoline engine car as well and without punishment so I could travel without the need for an extension cord.
 

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I think it raises another question: How abundant are rare earth metals such as Lithium and Cobalt? Is there enough to supply the"Electrification Revolution"?


BU-308: Availability of Lithium ? Battery University


"Most of the known supply of lithium is in Bolivia, Argentina, Chile, Australia and China."


I guess it's only a matter of time before we find weapons of mass destruction in South America, and/or have to topple the brutal dictators of Boliva, Argentina and Chile in the name of humanitarianism and justice.
 

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I would happily buy a $20K CAD electric car even it if had a short 100KM range for around town use (90% of my driving) as long as I could keep my gasoline engine car as well and without punishment so I could travel without the need for an extension cord.
You should look at used EVs - used Nissan Leaf's with under 20k miles for around $10k USD, barely used Mitsubishi i-MiEV's under $10k USD, $9k for a 27k mile Fiat 500e, 10k mile smart ForTwo electrics run about $7k USD. The second hand market makes these things CHEAP!
 

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But you are talking abut the US, I am in Canada. There is no such thing as cheap in the land of carbon taxes and socialism. After taxes, buying a used EV will still run you close to $20K, although higher mileage can be had for less. If you buy new there is a huge premium, even with the current pathetic government incentives.

And no Smart cars. I need 4 seats and some sort of cargo area. This is why current electrics are only good for commuters if you ask me. They offer nothing to those of us outside the city.
 

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I find it interesting that Mazda was able to actually do it. It really makes me wonder how long they have been testing it since they have been talking about it for 2-3 years now. Since this is supposed to be out in MY19, does that mean sometime after March 2018 or will it really mean 2019?

The combustion engine is not going away anytime soon. At least in the US. There is just not the infrastructure to support everyoe going to it. Americans like to drive when they want whenever they want. Even if the infrastructure was there, it would take decades to get the 50% of the country on it. That would have to happen for it to cease to exist (are at least no new models to be made based on gasoline). In addition, what would the solution be for semi trailers? EVs are not a solution for that yet either.
 

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But you are talking abut the US, I am in Canada. There is no such thing as cheap in the land of carbon taxes and socialism. After taxes, buying a used EV will still run you close to $20K, although higher mileage can be had for less. If you buy new there is a huge premium, even with the current pathetic government incentives.

And no Smart cars. I need 4 seats and some sort of cargo area. This is why current electrics are only good for commuters if you ask me. They offer nothing to those of us outside the city.
Figured you could stay under $20k CAD with a $10k USD car, even after currency conversion and taxes & duties - a shame Canadian dealers send most of their late-model used to the states.
 

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You should look at used EVs - used Nissan Leaf's with under 20k miles for around $10k USD, barely used Mitsubishi i-MiEV's under $10k USD, $9k for a 27k mile Fiat 500e, 10k mile smart ForTwo electrics run about $7k USD. The second hand market makes these things CHEAP!


That's because when the batteries wear out, you'll have to spend $15K+ on a new one. Battery replacement costs are a huge maintenance hit that buyers of used EVs should be aware of. I think the prices of used EVs are factoring that in


https://www.autoblog.com/2012/12/14/a-closer-look-at-tesla-model-s-battery-pack-replacement-costs/
 

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That's because when the batteries wear out, you'll have to spend $15K+ on a new one. Battery replacement costs are a huge maintenance hit that buyers of used EVs should be aware of. I think the prices of used EVs are factoring that in


https://www.autoblog.com/2012/12/14/a-closer-look-at-tesla-model-s-battery-pack-replacement-costs/
That info is almost 5 years old.

This Nissan Leaf owner replaced his battery for under $6k and Nissan will finance it.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/life-old-nissan-leaf-electric-car-battery-replacement-153000943.html
 

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While no new information, there is some interesting quotes from this presentation/interview.

A glimpse of Mazda?s upcoming ?X? | BusinessMirror

In SkyActiv-X, ‘X’ means a crossover between diesel and gasoline engines,” he explained.

While fuel efficiency falls closely with the current Skyactiv-D powertrains, the acceleration characteristic of the Skyactiv-X is steadier toward higher rpm.

Interestingly, there will be no major changes in terms of engine components. Kudo simply stated “The system is very simple—no special hardware.” But when asked how can the motor handle the lean mixture, he clarified that the compression is not high, therefore, the engine is not heavy built and rather comparable to the current ones.

It was also claimed that Skyactiv-X is built to meet future Euro emission standards and while it shares the same characteristics with diesel mills, it will definitely not sound like one.
 

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That info is almost 5 years old.

This Nissan Leaf owner replaced his battery for under $6k and Nissan will finance it.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/life-old-nissan-leaf-electric-car-battery-replacement-153000943.html
Again, that is great for Americans, but after the exchange to Canadian dollars and all the import fees and taxes that $6000US battery pack is well over $10K CAD and here we will have availability issues because we are 1/10 of the market the US is. Also, Nissan Canada will have different availability/rules for stuff in Canada.
 

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While no new information, there is some interesting quotes from this presentation/interview.

A glimpse of Mazda?s upcoming ?X? | BusinessMirror

In SkyActiv-X, ‘X’ means a crossover between diesel and gasoline engines,” he explained.

While fuel efficiency falls closely with the current Skyactiv-D powertrains, the acceleration characteristic of the Skyactiv-X is steadier toward higher rpm.

Interestingly, there will be no major changes in terms of engine components. Kudo simply stated “The system is very simple—no special hardware.” But when asked how can the motor handle the lean mixture, he clarified that the compression is not high, therefore, the engine is not heavy built and rather comparable to the current ones.

It was also claimed that Skyactiv-X is built to meet future Euro emission standards and while it shares the same characteristics with diesel mills, it will definitely not sound like one.
The last sentence is for me the most Important:

"...and while it shares the same characteristics with diesel mills, it will definitely not sound like one."
 
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