Mazda 6 Forums banner

1 - 20 of 58 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
6,960 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
Atlantic Storm Names:
Alberto - 6/10 to 6/14 - 70mph Max - 995mb
Beryl - 7/18 to 7-21 - 60mph Max - 1001mb
Chris - 8/1 to 8/5 - 65mph Max - 1001mb
***Debby - 8/21 to 8/xx - 50mph Max - 1000mb
***Ernesto - 8/24 to 8/xx - 60mph Max - 997mb
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sandy
Tony
Valerie
William

*** = Currently Active

feel free to make predictions on the names. which one will be notorious (my money on gordon or isaac) and what storm will completely fizzle out (pansy sandy!)

It's officially open season. in this thread we'll discuss forming storms, active storms, and who the hell is really in danger. the internet has an utterly massive wealth of resources when it comes to satellites, weather buoys, and blogs related to this topic. we'll keep this open til November 30th, the official end of the hurricane season.

Additionally, growing up reading and learning about these storms, i've become real fucking tired of all the BS that surrounds them. pay no attention to the media, they do nothing but drive fear into those too stupid to have an evacuation plan or the supplies to handle the situation. how many times can you remember: "brought to you by lowes/home depot/ace hardware." but the media is a discussion for another time. this thread will be for facts and hopefully clarify any questions that arise.

im not going to go into much about "what is a hurricane?" and all that crap. search google or wikipedia. but i'll keep it nice and simple.

Hurricanes are counter-clockwise rotating, low pressure, warm core storms. pretty much anything else is a cold core system, although those (including nor'easters) have been known to develop a warm core and take on the behavior or intensity of a hurricane. they do not develop along the equator, since they would not be able to develop any sort of rotation. there have been hurricanes that have hit south america though:


what people dont/refuse to understand is that there are natural crests and troughs in hurricane activity. this is called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. in my opinion, Global Warming has slightly exaggerated this natural phase, and as such, created some amazing monster storms. we did not create emily. nor katrina. nor rita. nor wilma. these category 5 storms need a lot more than just gas guzzling SUVs to reach and sustain 160 (emily) or 175 (the rest) mph winds. plus, the winds were just blowing them onto land. do you remember any of these people bitching about how 15 storms stayed out at sea one year? the blocks have to fall into place sometime.

now the 2006 season. Dr. Gray, from Colorado State, a well respected and leading meteorologist in the field of hurricanes, releases a number of predictions each year. the one most people stand by would be the predictions he makes in May. he also does another set later in the year. so for comparison, lets look at last year:

2005 Prediction (actual)
Named Storms - 13 (28)
Hurricanes - 7 (13)
Major Hurricanes - 3 (7)

2006 Prediction (average)
Named Storms - 17 (10)
Hurricanes - 9 (6)
Major Hurricanes - 5 (2)

now that may not seem like much to you, but pay attention to the average. for my personal prediction...19 storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major. we'll have a more normal start to the season but it'll pick up with amazing pace by mid-late august. major hurricane to strike gulf coast and the east coast of florida (then into north carolina.) i say expect something out of the ordinary this season too. last year rewrote all sorts of records and "rules", so why should we believe this year will be any different?

hurricanes are immensely complex and unpredictable. so is the atmosphere that creates them, and the ocean that feeds them. go ahead and watch your doppler radar one day. watch how some storms explode, and others just fizzle out. notice the scale, and then think of a storm hundreds of miles wide gathering itself. try to imagine just how much energy is being released by a major hurricane (many times a nuclear detonation per second) and then you'll see the terrifying beauty of it all coming together. as much as i enjoy them in these stages, i don't wish them upon anyone. many people joke about storms and the dangers, but i guarantee none of these jackasses are sitting on the coast when one comes through.

Tropical storms, hurricanes or not, can deluge an area with rain faster than you really think is possible. take them seriously, 45mph winds or 170mph. be smart and you'll be fine. Please feel free to ask questions about these storms, past storms, whatever. this a thread to cut through the bullshit the media feeds everyone. im tired of it and i know you all are as well.

onto the gallery, courtest of my hdd:
hurricane andrew at landfall. reclassified as a cat5 160mph sustained at landfall.

Katrina landfall

Hurricane Emily's waves beating the shit out of jamaica

Hurricane Mitch, 1998. killed 10,000 people in honduras and other countries
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
6,960 Posts
Discussion Starter #2
btw, i resized everything to 800x600. some of these pictures were MEGA ULTRA SUPER hi res imagery, hence the pixelation.

Before/After image of an island in Louisiana courtesy of Hurricane Andrew

a literal buzzsaw...Andrew again

andrew vs the NEAR katrina before katrina...Hurricane Floyd (1999)

hurricane frances. 3 day trek across florida. so goddamn boring

Hurricane Ivan...helluva storm


wanted to put this in too...

mammatus clouds. so gorgeous. and yes, its real. it was taken at an air force academy
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
6,960 Posts
Discussion Starter #3
my "favorite" hurricane...Camille (190mph sustained, 225mph+ gusts)

Katrina, max strength.

Hurricane Rita at max strength. 898mb pressure

Hurricane Wilma at max strength, oct 19th. 882mb pressure (185mph winds)

Hurricane Wilma about to woop Cozumel's ass

Super Typhoon Angela...supposedly the strongest recorded storm (195mph) along with Super Typhoon Gay (i didn't make it up) this was the only picture they were able to get before a satellite blackout. apparently she stayed that intensity for a mere 2-3 hours

Cape Hatteras after Isabelle





i just found these pics. had to post

Mt Fuji

Mt Rainier

Hole in the sky above Alabama


alright, and back on topic :D
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
93 Posts
Wow, informative post Business. I have a few questions for you:

1. I saw a map recently that showed likelihood of a major storm hitting a certain area of the US. I think that (on this particular map) the Northeast showed a high probability of being hit. Just curious if you've heard anything about this.

2. The ABC islands (Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao) are generally considered to be outside of the hurricane belt, although I think Ivan came pretty close 2 years ago. Do you think this area is likely to see a major storm in the future, due to changing weather patterns, etc.?

I think Oscar will be the bad storm...he is the Grouch after all. :D
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,574 Posts
hey business find a counterclockwise storm along the side of brazil. thats a clockwise one. not a hurricane :)


edit: or it is a hurricane, but just clockwise. typhoon?
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
2,898 Posts
Wow, informative post Business. I have a few questions for you:

1. I saw a map recently that showed likelihood of a major storm hitting a certain area of the US. I think that (on this particular map) the Northeast showed a high probability of being hit. Just curious if you've heard anything about this.
[/b]
This was more than likely Accuweather forecast (or in most weather circles, sucuweather). They don't have a very good image or reputation within the weather community. However, the media is in love with them and they love getting the attention. Accuweather bases their forecasts directly from the past. While generally the past does sometimes predict the future, we don't have a large enough basis of information to make accurate hurricane forecasts. This is especially evident when you have forecasters and researchers divided over whether global warming is playing an ideal role in strengthening hurricanes or whether we are in an upswing of frequent and strong anomolies.

Personally, I think their forecast are based off the fact that the Northeast hasn't seen a hurricane in quite some time and is "overdue" for one.

EDIT: Found the pic I think you were referring to:

 

·
Registered
Joined
·
93 Posts
That's the one Absolut. Seems strange to me that most of the Gulf Coast gets a "low/mid" rating, while NYC and surrounding areas get a "very high".
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
6,960 Posts
Discussion Starter #10
Business, you work for NOAA?? :)
[/b]
no, not enough money. no degree either, lol.

Wow, informative post Business. I have a few questions for you:

1. I saw a map recently that showed likelihood of a major storm hitting a certain area of the US. I think that (on this particular map) the Northeast showed a high probability of being hit. Just curious if you've heard anything about this.

2. The ABC islands (Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao) are generally considered to be outside of the hurricane belt, although I think Ivan came pretty close 2 years ago. Do you think this area is likely to see a major storm in the future, due to changing weather patterns, etc.?

I think Oscar will be the bad storm...he is the Grouch after all. :D
[/b]
1 - i've been posting in other places and discussing with other people that New England is long overdue for a major storm. Hurricane Bob hit there in 1991, and i was a mere 2 years old when my family sat through Hurricane Gloria in 1985. In 2005, the way things set up, the Gulf had a ton of storms. This year it seems to be the more traditional "sweeping" motion from the East coast of florida, north carolina, and new england. my Surprise Meter would be at Zero to see one (or more) storms hit these areas.

2 - over the last 10 years, the ABC islands have been hit by Tropical Storm Cesar (96) Tropical Depression Isidore (02) with Charley, Ivan (04) and last year's Emily and Dennis coming close. 04 and 05 were rather similar to each other in patterns, which doesn't happen too often, so they've had their chances to be hit by a major storm (especially ivan!)

hey business find a counterclockwise storm along the side of brazil. thats a clockwise one. not a hurricane :)
edit: or it is a hurricane, but just clockwise. typhoon?
[/b]
southern hemisphere = clockwise rotation. typhoons are for the western pacific above the equator. tropical cyclones in the australia area. speaking of which...

you may remember back in March a hurricane hit Australia. unfortunately, many US Meteorologists and naturally, the idiot Media, saw the Australian reports of Tropical Cyclone Glenda with 180mph winds about to make landfall. Australia does some stuff a little differently than we do...for instance, they rate storms on their maximum gusts not maximum sustained winds. so in reality, Glenda was a category 3 or 4 on our scales with 180mph gusts.

This is because Australia uses the Dvorak scale:
CI - MWS - MWS - MSLP - MSLP - Saffir-Simpson
# (Knots) (MPH) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 KTS 29 MPH (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS 29 MPH
2 30 KTS 35 MPH 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 40 MPH 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 52 MPH 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 75 MPH 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 89 MPH 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 117 MPH 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 146 MPH 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 161 MPH 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)

pay attention to the MSLP. i'll use the #8 for the example. Mean Sea Level Atmospheric Pressure. according to regions, a storm with 890mb pressure in this area equates to a storm with 858mb of pressure in the atlantic. So Wilma, at 882mb, would've been 840mb in the pacific. Typhoon Tip, the largest son of a bitch the world has seen, reached Dvorak 8.0. Typhoon Angela and Gay reached 8.2 to 8.4 and did so for a longer period of time than Tip. Unfortunately, because of their distance away from anyone who cares, we cant get hard facts on this. satellite estimates have to be used in the pacific for obvious reasons.

now you might say, well how can they possibly know that without flying in? take a look at the picture i posted about Typhoon Angela. see all that purple? Cold cloud tops are a rather tell-tale sign of a storms intensity. Typhoon Angela reached a remarkable -84 degrees celsius temperature for the highest clouds. additionally, the most intense storms have very small eyes. basic physics, since the smaller the eye, the faster the rotation around the eye, and therefore the higher potential wind speeds.

One storm we will never know enough about is Tropical Cyclone Monica from April. she behaved just like Katrina/Rita/Wilma and bombed overnight, becoming incredibly intense. Australia may have a ridiculous amount of coastline, but its only populated in a handful of places, thus, they don't need to be as informed about the storms as we need to (ie: dont have the budget.) Monica was a gorgeous storm though, and is thought to have hit about 195mph sustained winds. its questioned right now whether or not she had a lower pressure than Tropical Cyclone Zoe of 2003, but she did have cloud tops as cold as -82 degrees celsius!



This was more than likely Accuweather forecast (or in most weather circles, sucuweather). They don't have a very good image or reputation within the weather community. However, the media is in love with them and they love getting the attention. Accuweather bases their forecasts directly from the past. While generally the past does sometimes predict the future, we don't have a large enough basis of information to make accurate hurricane forecasts. This is especially evident when you have forecasters and researchers divided over whether global warming is playing an ideal role in strengthening hurricanes or whether we are in an upswing of frequent and strong anomolies.

Personally, I think their forecast are based off the fact that the Northeast hasn't seen a hurricane in quite some time and is "overdue" for one.

EDIT: Found the pic I think you were referring to:


[/b]
oh wow, i've never seen that before. i believe they're basing a lot of this stuff from what Dr. Gray said:
They put the odds of a major (Category 3-4-5) hurricane crossing the U.S. coast at 82% (average for last century is 52%). The U.S. East Coast (including Florida) has a 69% chance of a major hurricane strike (31% is average), and the Gulf Coast, 38% (30% is average). In addition, there is an above-average risk of major hurricanes in the Caribbean.

That's the one Absolut. Seems strange to me that most of the Gulf Coast gets a "low/mid" rating, while NYC and surrounding areas get a "very high".
[/b]
well, its just the way things are setting up, or its the media. take your pick. of course there are always surprises, especially if you have 20+ storms again, they're not all gonna go the same way.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
6,960 Posts
Discussion Starter #12
unfortunately we have to wait and see how the steering flows set in.

here ya go:

Sea Surface Temperature Departure From Normal - May 31st 2005:

Sea Surface Temperature Departure From Normal - May 29th 2006:


note the atlantic basin and how 2005 had slightly warmer temperatures over a larger area. no cool spots at all. the values at the bottom are all for degrees in celsius, so a 1-2 degree celsius difference may not seem like a lot, but its at the heart of what makes a 110mph cat2 a 175mph cat5 overnight.

i think its very important to point out that the gulf stream is significantly warmer than it was last year at this time...
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
93 Posts
From those maps Business, it looks like the Atlantic had some "hot spots" in '05 (coast of S. Greenland and W. Africa), while in '06 the warm area covers almost the entire middle Atlantic. Is that cause for alarm when it comes to storms reaching further northward?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,708 Posts
Didn't one of the repaired levees in New Orleans suffer a partial collapse recently?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
6,960 Posts
Discussion Starter #15
From those maps Business, it looks like the Atlantic had some "hot spots" in '05 (coast of S. Greenland and W. Africa), while in '06 the warm area covers almost the entire middle Atlantic. Is that cause for alarm when it comes to storms reaching further northward?
[/b]
storms that hit new england fly upwards along the eastern seaboard. they dont form out past bermuda and come in at an angle. thats just the nature of the steering currents like the jet stream and new fronts. my concern will lie with any storm that gets into the carribean (and then the gulf) and those that are just north of leeward islands or puerto rico. these are the storms that will get "sucked up" by the fronts and nail the coastlines. this season should be less about one area getting hit by a storm, and more of multiple areas affected by the same storm.

Didn't one of the repaired levees in New Orleans suffer a partial collapse recently?
[/b]
wow that sucks if it did. i've yet to hear anything about that
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
6,960 Posts
Discussion Starter #16
this is a forecast for wind shear over the atlantic basin.


as you can see, it drops off by a massive amount over the gulf, carribean...well, any place a storm can begin. if this pattern holds up for another couple days into the start of next week, there's a good chance we'll have a tropical depression form.

there's also a chance a disturbance from the eastern pacific to crossover mexico and reform in the Bay of Campeche...
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,076 Posts
I live in Sacramento, but work in the off-shore oil fields in the GOM. As captain of a supply vessel in that area, let me tell you just how little has been repaired in regards to last years storms. A few of the major projects have been partially completed, but most of the survey and repair work has not even commenced in the off-shore sector. Consider that the extent of the damage that last years storms caused has not yet been conclusively calculated. Also, the relatively low cost of oil in the previous decade had made domestic oil production unprofitable in comparison to other geographic areas. This has left the entire energy producing sector in the GOM region without the qualified man-power and high-end equipment needed to complete repairs in a timely and fiscally responsible manner.

Most of the smaller towns on the lower Mississippi river and on the coast in Mississippi (Katrina), and eastern Texas and western Mississippi (Rita) have not seen any of the rebuilding efforts or funds due to them because New Orleans has received the lions share of money and man power. Remember, Katrina was a miss in relation to New Orleans. If not for the failure of the levy system there would be very little dicussion about this years hurricane season. Little long-term damage was done by the power of the storm itself. Combine NO with the hits that the suddenly "news worthy" energy sector in that area took and you have a story.

In the long run, what we have to look forward to is what on paper looks to be a very active season. The important factor, as previously stated, is that this year's prediction is worse than last years. The levy system in much of NO has been repaired to pre-Katrina levels and in some areas strenghthend to what they should have been in the first place. But, like any protection, the levys as a whole are only as strong as the weakest link. This has left new and undamaged areas vulnerable to flooding. We as a nation have a lot of soul searching to do when it comes to the long term viability of keeping a city and population the size of NO safe from future hurricane related damage.

I am headed back to Louisiana on Tuesday after my month off and expect that this will be a fairly quiet time in the oil patch. But come time for my hitch in August, I have little doubt that I'll be dodging storms and seeking refuge from at least one huricane. The unanswerable question at this point is where and when. As a mariner, I have to laugh when I see the "strike cone" when storms come up twords the US. Just shows the how difficult the predictions are. Keep your fingers crossed, those of you residing in the GOM coastal areas earned a quiet year.
 
1 - 20 of 58 Posts
About this Discussion
57 Replies
17 Participants
Wiggum
Mazda 6 Forums
Mazda6club.com is a forum dedicated to the Mazda6 / Atenza. Come and discuss reliability, performance, modifications, and more!
Full Forum Listing
Top